Realistically, with only five stages left in the 2010 Vuelta a Espana, there are only three riders with a chance to win. They are..."J-Rod", "V-Nib", and "Fleck". As circumstance would have it, Mongo picked these three guys(among others)to round out the podium in Madrid.
With tomorrow's 46K, flat, TT, it should all start coming together. Nibali is the best TT rider out of all three, and he should end the day with about a 1-2 minute lead over Rodriguez. Schleck could jump Rodriguez with a great ride, but will probably slot in right behind him. I know I've left out Mosquera, who currently sits in third, but we all know he's going nowhere but backwards.
(Epilogue...Looks like Mongo was wrong about Mosquera in the TT)